Thirty-Two a Day
The Panama Canal lifts every ship up into a lake and flushes the lake to sea behind it — so in a dry year, the shortcut between two oceans runs short of rain.
A canal that climbs
The **Panama Canal** is not a ditch at sea level. Its locks lift every ship about 26 metres up into **Gatun Lake**, carry it across the isthmus, and lower it back down to the other ocean. Each crossing flushes about 200 million litres of fresh water out to sea. And the lake that supplies it is filled by one thing: rain.
Claim (consensus): The canal's locks raise ships about 26 m to Gatun Lake, and each lockage releases fresh water to the sea — about 200 million litres (roughly 52 million US gallons) per Panamax transit; Gatun and Alajuela lakes are replenished only by rainfall.
Thirty-two a day
In 2026 the rain didn't come: from May to August the canal's watershed got about a third less than usual. So from 15 September the canal cut its crossings from 36 a day to 32. One ship paid a record 5.3 million dollars at auction for a single slot. And out in the Pacific, forecasters give a very strong El Niño better than nine-in-ten odds this winter.
Claim (consensus): With May–August 2026 rainfall about 34% below average, the Panama Canal Authority cut daily transit slots from 36 to 34 in early September and to 32 from 15 September 2026; a slot auction reached a record $5.3 million, and NOAA gave a greater-than-90% chance of a very strong El Niño in winter 2026–27.
A shortcut that runs on rain
Panama's dry season runs from December to April, and the canal says the autumn rain will decide whether more cuts come. Its long-term answer is a new reservoir on the Río Indio, which would flood about 4,600 hectares and move about 2,000 people. Until then, one of the world's great shortcuts runs on the weather.
Claim (consensus): The canal authority said September–November rainfall would determine whether further transit cuts are needed in early 2027; its planned Río Indio reservoir would flood about 4,600 hectares and relocate about 2,000 people, with works due to start in 2028.
Sources
- Panama Canal Authority, Advisory A-29-2026: additional measures for reduced precipitation (20 August 2026)
- Al Jazeera, 21 August 2026: Panama Canal to limit shipping ahead of El Niño
- Japan Times, 8 September 2026: Panama Canal considering more cuts
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO diagnostic discussion, September 2026
- gCaptain: Panama Canal auction hits new record at $5.3 million
- Panama Canal Authority: how the canal is addressing the issue of water
- US Bureau of Transportation Statistics: low water levels at Gatun Lake and the Panama Canal
- gCaptain: Panama Canal advances Río Indio reservoir project